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Online TowerMan

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Re: Weather
« Reply #40 on: May 09, 2016, 09:20 AM »
Roger

I prefer this weather forecast HERE   :027:

Also if the centre of the low goes over southern parts of the UK, then Scotland tends to get only light showers and sunny intervals as the heaviest rain is alway to the south of the low pressure area  :028:

Richard  :001:
« Last Edit: May 09, 2016, 09:25 AM by TowerMan »
Richard    :001: 
         

Offline Sylvester

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Re: Weather
« Reply #41 on: May 09, 2016, 09:24 AM »
Well, it's better, but not a lot better.  I prefer this forecast:

Friday:  Sunny and warm.
Saturday:  Sunny and warm.
Sunday:  Sunny and warm.
Ride as if your life depended on it.

Offline Sylvester

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Re: Weather
« Reply #42 on: May 10, 2016, 08:01 AM »
Overall Synopsys

10 days to go.

The weather model continues to change, although it's still dominated by two low pressure systems sandwiching the UK on May 20.  The prediction now is that the low pressure closest to the UK will be directly to the west of Scotland and get down to 980mB.  That means ... wind and rain.  Most of the models are predicting night-time temperatures of 5-6C, but I think that this is very optimistic.  I'm GUESSING that night time temps will be in the 0-5C range.  For those camping, you'll need a good mat and sleeping bag - and excellent tent pegs!

LRWF NVM - Moffat: w/end of May 21-22

Friday, May 20:  Clear skies in the morning becoming cloudy as the day progresses and turning to rain in the afternoon - just in time for those pitching tents.  High of 11C and a low of 5C (yeah, right!).  Very windy, with gusts from the south to south-east at 20mph.  Barometric pressure falling.

Saturday, May 21:  A rainy and VERY windy night, with gusts of up to 35mph.  Skies improving as the day progresses but strong winds throughout the day.  High of 12C low of 6C.  Wind from the west with gusts to 35mph.  Barometric pressure stable but very low at 985mB.

Sunday, May 22:  Skies clearing overnight to a relatively dry morning, but rain resumes in the afternoon.  High of 13C low of 7C.  Wind from the south-west at 10-30mph.  Barometric pressure rising.

LRWF - Moffat - Week of May 16:

Monday (16th):  Clear skies in the morning (with temps dipping below freezing), turning warmer in the afternoon with clouds and rain.
Tuesday (17th):  Partly cloudy skies in the morning but turning to rain in the late afternoon and evening.  Overnight temperatures close to zero.
Wednesday (18th):  Isolated showers throughout the day.
Thursday (19th): Clear to partly cloudy skies.
Friday (19th):  Clear in the morning, turning to rain in the afternoon.

VLRWF - Scotland - Week of May 23:

Monday (23rd):  Skies clearing throughout the day with occasional showers.
Tuesday (24th):  Clear with lots of sun.
Wednesday (25th):  Clear in the morning, but isolated (potentially heavy) showers in the afternoon.
Thursday (26th):  Showers.
Friday (27th):  Showers.
Ride as if your life depended on it.

Offline Sylvester

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Re: Weather
« Reply #43 on: May 11, 2016, 08:48 AM »
Overall Synopsys

The predicted weather chart looks a little better today and the low pressure systems have moved a little.  But, the UK is still expected to be stuck between them during the NVM weekend meaning wind and rain.  Rideout day will (hopefully) be clear but possibly (very) cold.

LRWF NVM - Moffat: w/end of May 21-22

Friday, May 20:  Isolated showers for most of the day.  Brief periods of sunshine mid afternoon, but showers again in the evening.  High of 13C dropping to 6C overnight.  Windy with gusts of 20mph initially from the south-west but turning to the north-east be evening.  Barometric pressure rising.

Saturday, May 21:  A cold but clear morning, with temperatures down to 3-5C.  Minimal chance of rain throughout the day but temperature staying in the single digits and topping out at 8C.  Temperature will drop sharply when the sun goes down with a high probability of overnight frost.  A bitingly cold wind from the north and east at 15mph.  Barometric pressure steady.

Sunday, May 22:  An occasional shower during the night and morning, but clearing as the day progresses.  Much warmer, with highs of 16C.  Very windy overnight (gusts to 20mph) but wind reducing as the day progresses.  Barometric pressure steady.

LRWF - Moffat - Week of May 16:

Monday (16th):  A cold morning, but temperatures rising quickly under sunny skies.
Tuesday (17th):  A clear morning, but increasing clouds turning to wind and rain in the afternoon.
Wednesday (18th):  Isolated showers throughout the day.
Thursday (19th): Overnight showers clearing throughout the day.
Friday (19th):  Showers.

VLRWF - Moffat - Week of May 23:

Monday (23rd):  Occasional showers, some heavy, but sunny intervals.
Tuesday (24th):  Overnight rain, but lots of sun during the day.
Wednesday (25th):  Sunny and warmer.
Thursday (26th):  Sunny and warmer.
Friday (27th):  Partly cloudy with occasional showers.
Ride as if your life depended on it.

Offline Sylvester

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Re: Weather
« Reply #44 on: May 12, 2016, 08:47 AM »
Overall Synopsys

We're getting closer and the forecast is increasing in accuracy.  The good news is, it's also improving!  The current prediction is that the two low pressure systems will no longer sandwich the UK but will be further north over Iceland and the Norwegian Sea.  They're still relatively close which means that there will be a high potential for showers and certainly wind but far enough away that it isn't going to be as squally as initially predicted.  Next week is probably going to be unsettled with better weather for the week following the NVM.

LRWF NVM - Moffat: w/end of May 21-22

Friday, May 20:  Light isolated showers for most of the day, but clearing towards evening.  High of 16C (late afternoon) dropping to 9C by midnight.  Windy with gusts of 30mph from the west.  Barometric pressure high and steady.

Saturday, May 21:  A chilly but clear morning, with temperatures down to 5-10C.  Minimal chance of rain and temperatures steadily climbing throughout the day, possibly reaching as high as 16C.  Wind from the west and south-west with gusts up to 25mph.  Barometric pressure high and steady.

Sunday, May 22:  Clear and sunny.  High of 15C and low of 10C.  Wind declining.  Barometric pressure high and rising.

LRWF - Moffat - Week of May 16:

Monday (16th):  Sunny but cold overnight with a chance of frost.
Tuesday (17th):  A cold start with increasing clouds turning to wind and rain in the afternoon.
Wednesday (18th):  Isolated showers throughout the day.
Thursday (19th): Rain.
Friday (19th):  Showers.

VLRWF - Moffat - Week of May 23:

Monday (23rd):  Sunny.
Tuesday (24th):  Cloudy but dry.
Wednesday (25th):  Sunny intervals.
Thursday (26th):  Sunny intervals.
Friday (27th):  Sunny.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2016, 08:49 AM by Sylvester »
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Offline 100milesaway

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Re: Weather
« Reply #45 on: May 12, 2016, 09:15 AM »
It's the month of May in Britain, which is always unpredictable. My advice would be to expect the worst and hope that it is better than that. I will be wearing full Goretex kit. ie suit, gloves and boots, with warm undergarments including long johns and Cold killer top.  I will also be wearing my "Best buy ever" bit of motorcycle kit = a cold killer balaclava with extra long front and back. These bits of kit, that completely block the gap in-between the bottom of the helmet and the top of the jacket, whilst also keeping your bonce warm, are fantastic in wet weather. As has been said many times, there is no such thing as bad weather, just lots of instances of inappropriate riding kit. If the weather is actually better than cold and wet, you can always remove stuff.
What would you rather be, or a wasp?

Offline anthony1664

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Re: Weather
« Reply #46 on: May 12, 2016, 11:40 PM »
Still can't make my mind up if I should leave my heatd seat attached and fetch my heated jacket :D
My real names Dave

Offline Ted99UK

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Re: Weather
« Reply #47 on: May 13, 2016, 05:36 AM »
*Originally Posted by anthony1664 [+]
Still can't make my mind up if I should leave my heatd seat attached and fetch my heated jacket :D

Easy!
 Taking it will very probably ensure you wont need it.
Leave it at home. you just KNOW what will happen. :5:
Think of all those "Iffy" days when you agonised about whether to put ypur waterproof overtrousers on before riding off. What did you decide? What happened? Open and shut case.

Ted.

Offline Sylvester

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Re: Weather
« Reply #48 on: May 13, 2016, 08:04 AM »
Overall Synopsys

A week to go, and I don't have good news.   :003:  Those weather models are once more predicting low pressure systems over northern Europe.  On Saturday one of those systems will be centred over the Hebrides, another over Greenland and another over the Norwegian Sea.  Oh dear!  It looks like May isn't going to be living up to it's reputation as the most stable weather month of the year in Scotland.  But, the jet stream is still moving around so there's a chance that the predictions will change again.  For those heading to Scotland next week ahead of the NVM, take your wet-weather gear and be prepared for lots of wind.

LRWF NVM - Moffat: w/end of May 21-22

Friday, May 20:  Isolated showers for most of the day.  High of 13C (late afternoon) low of 6C (early morning).  Windy with gusts of 20mph from the south.  Barometric pressure low and steady.

Saturday, May 21:  A chilly but clear morning, with overnight temperatures down to 6C.  Minimal chance of rain but temperatures only climbing to 13C.  Very windy in the morning with gusts from the south-west at up to 30mph  Wind dropping throughout the afternoon.  Barometric pressure low and steady.

Sunday, May 22:  Cold but clear and sunny in the morning turning to cloud and rain in the afternoon.  High of only 13C and evening low of 8C.  Still very windy with gusts from west at 30mph.  Barometric pressure rising.

LRWF - Moffat - Week of May 16:

Monday (16th):  Sunny but cold overnight (-2C).
Tuesday (17th):  Cold (low of 2C and high of 9C) and rainy.
Wednesday (18th):  Slightly warmer (high of 12C) but still rainy.
Thursday (19th): Cold (low of 4C and high of 10C) and rainy.
Friday (19th):  Cold (low of 6C and high of 13C) and rainy.

VLRWF - Moffat - Week of May 23:

Monday (23rd):  Clear and cool (12C) with scattered clouds.
Tuesday (24th):  Showers throughout the day.
Wednesday (25th):  Clear and cool (13C) with scattered clouds.
Thursday (26th):  Showers throughout the day.
Friday (27th):  Showers throughout the day.
Ride as if your life depended on it.

Offline anthony1664

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Re: Weather
« Reply #49 on: May 14, 2016, 12:38 AM »
*Originally Posted by Ted99UK [+]
Easy!
 Taking it will very probably ensure you wont need it.
Leave it at home. you just KNOW what will happen. :5:
Think of all those "Iffy" days when you agonised about whether to put ypur waterproof overtrousers on before riding off. What did you decide? What happened? Open and shut case.

Ted.

The jackets in the seat is off so I have gone 50/50 on it :D
My real names Dave